Welcome back after a nice long Easter break. Whilst we were away the major data point was the US job numbers on Good Friday which came in largely as expected with 236,000 new jobs added in March but the unemployment rate did drop to 3.5%. The data led to markets pricing a higher likelihood of a 0.25% rate hike in May by the Fed, causing 2-year treasury yields to rise taking USD stronger with it. GBPUSD continued to drop off the recent 10-month highs as a result. In general, markets were quiet over the Easter period ahead of key US data this week.
Today’s Overview
So a bit of cautious optimism in markets with equity futures higher to start the week, taking GBPUSD and EURUSD off the lows seen over the Easter break. Focus this week will fall on inflation data from the US in the form of consumer-led inflation tomorrow and producer price inflation on Thursday. Higher prints from these sets of data could continue to add to rate hike bets and could continue to add demand for USD. As we know through most of March, markets were very aggressive in assessing rate cut expectations for the Fed and perhaps those expectations have peaked? Fed’s Harker and Kashkari will be speaking today also.
The US dollar had a torrid March as rate cut expectations continued to increase and it felt like the market was using any excuse to sell the dollar. However, perhaps the markets were too aggressive in thinking this. Since the turn of the month, we have seen renewed demand for the greenback as 2-year treasury yields have continued to rise and as a result, since making a new 10-month high, GBPUSD has retreated suggesting the markets perhaps aren’t comfortable in seeing the pair this high? US inflation numbers are in focus this week and higher prints here could see continued demand for the dollar.
Equals Market Analysis– 11th April 2023
Today’s Market Rates
Today’s Interbank Rates at 09:35 am against GBP movement.
GBP>EUR – 1.1407
GBP>USD – 1.2431
EUR>USD – 1.0897
GBP>CAD – 1.6782
GBP>AUD – 1.8652
GBP>SEK – 13.004
GBP>AED – 4.5644
GBP>HKD – 9.7590
GBP>ZAR – 22.807
GBP>CHF – 1.1245
Today’s Highlights
· 09:00 EUR Retail Sales (YoY)(Mar)
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