Main Headlines:
The House of Representatives is set to pass Biden’s almost $2 trillion Build Back Better bill today, after the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would result in a net increase in the deficit over ten years. The release of CBO’s assessment was as a precursor to the support of several moderate Democrats. Whilst House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, delayed the vote on Thursday evening, it is set to pass in the House with a slim majority today. The Bill is a momentous package and would invest billions of dollars in efforts to combat climate change, healthcare provisions for the elderly and education.
The decision to axe HS2 rail improvements to parts of Northern England has continued to generate criticism from Conservative MPs, regional leaders and industry figures, who have expressed concern over long-term disruption and a failure to deliver on promises. A rise in UK consumer confidence, despite surging inflation, has eased economists concerns about spending recovery in the run up to Black Friday and Christmas. Meanwhile, UK public borrowing fell less than expected in October, according to ONS data, reflecting higher interest payments on public debt.
Markets
GBP
Sterling is well bid against most major currencies this morning. A UK government minister has invested in a tax scheme which is being contested by HM Revenue and Customs. Hundreds of investors, including Lord David Wolfson, invested in the construction of two data centres in Tyneside in 2011 that have since been empty. The scheme generated £134m in tax allowances for the investors who paid £79m, but the tax authorities are seeking to block the allowances. Elsewhere, the UK government has been accused of favouring wealthier households in social care reform after a new cap, of £86,000, on home and care costs was introduced. Sir Andrew Dilnot has warned that anyone with assets of less than £186,000 would be worse off under these changes.
EUR
The Euro is weaker against most major currencies in early morning trade. Germany has become the latest European country to ramp up Covid restrictions, announcing the limiting of large parts of public life for people that have not been vaccinated. This comes amidst a rapidly increasing number of Covid cases in the country. Brussels plans to make the EU more attractive to international investors through creating central data bases that hold information on publicly listed companies. The move is set to be announced next week and will make it easier for investors to access information on EU companies and banks.
USD
The Dollar is higher against the Euro and mostly unchanged against Sterling overnight. The North America leaders met at the White House on Thursday, after Mexican and Canadian officials complained that Biden’s plan to offer tax write offs to Americans buying US-made electric vehicles violated international trade laws. At the trilateral meeting, leaders agreed to deepen regional supply chains and to work to expand visas for temporary workers. A bipartisan coalition of state attorneys-general said it is investigating how Instagram affects young users and whether Meta, formerly known as Facebook, violated consumer protection laws.
Ballinger & Co. Morning Report–19th November 2021
Today’s Rates
GBP>EUR – 1.1887
GBP>USD – 1.3434
EUR>USD – 1.1304
GBP>CAD – 1.6977
GBP>AUD – 1.8532
GBP>SEK – 11.995
GBP>AED – 4.9347
GBP>HKD – 10.465
GBP>ZAR – 21.107
GBP>CHF – 1.2430
Today’s Calendar
· EUR ECB’s President Lagarde speech
· CAD Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep)
· EUR ECB’s President Lagarde speech
Today’s Highlights
· Forex Today: Dollar regains its footing after two-day decline, Fedspeak awaited
· EUR/USD Forecast: Has euro recovery already lost its legs?
· Germany’ Spahn: We are in a national emergency
· GBP/USD holds near 1.3500 after upbeat UK data
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