Main Headlines:
US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades as inflationary pressures spread further throughout the economy. October’s annual rate was 6.2%, the highest since 1990. Driving the surge was an uptick in costs for energy along with shelter, food, used cars and trucks and new vehicles. Key drivers, like hot housing markets and a global energy crunch, show few signs of fading away soon, meaning that even bigger jumps can be expected in the coming months. The data reinforce the view that inflationary pressures are not as “transitory” as the Fed had been insisting — making it increasingly likely that the Fed will raise interest rates next year.
UK economic growth beat expectations in September and narrowed the gap with pre-pandemic levels, supported by strong activity in the construction and health sectors. Gross domestic product rose by a monthly rate of 0.6 per cent in September, up from the 0.2 per cent expansion in August. Consumer-facing services fell 0.6% because of a drop in retail sales. That may fan concerns at the BOE of a drop in consumption, which might weigh more heavily on the recovery in the months ahead as inflation bites and taxes increase. Construction returned to strong growth after two months of contraction.
Markets
GBP
Sterling is weaker against most major currencies this morning. Boris Johnson defended the principle of MPs holding second jobs and insisted that the UK was not a corrupt country, after footage appeared to show Sir Geoffrey Cox, a Tory MP and former attorney-general, using his House of Commons office for legal work advising the British Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, England has recorded its longest unbroken run of declining daily coronavirus caseloads since February. UK retailers have reaped big productivity gains from the shift to online sales, as businesses become better able to operate with fewer workers.
EUR
The euro is higher versus the pound but lower against the dollar overnight. The European Central Bank could stop buying bonds as early as next September if inflation looks to have sustainably returned to the official target, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said. EU trade ministers are preparing to discuss the bloc’s recent lack of trade deals today. Heated debate is expected between France and the rest of the bloc. Emmanuel Macron, who had personally lobbied Ursula von der Leyen to ensure the deals on food were not signed until after the French election in April.
USD
The dollar is stronger against most majors in the early morning trade. China and the US vowed to work together to slow global warming, issuing a surprise joint statement Wednesday that injects new momentum into the last days of global climate negotiations. The two sides agreed to boost their efforts to cut emissions, including by tackling methane and illegal deforestation. The US investment industry’s top regulator has called for sweeping reforms of the rapidly growing $4.2tn private equity industry, proposing rules to ensure clearer disclosures of funds’ expenses and their performance metrics.
Ballinger & Co. Morning Report–11th November 2021
Today’s Rates
GBP>EUR – 1.1681
GBP>USD – 1.3392
EUR>USD – 1.1460
GBP>CAD – 1.6771
GBP>AUD – 1.8357
GBP>SEK – 11.675
GBP>AED – 4.9178
GBP>HKD – 10.430
GBP>ZAR – 20.547
GBP>CHF – 1.2320
Today’s Calendar
· EUR Economic Bulletin
· GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)(Oct)
· EUR ECB’s Lane speech
· EUR ECB’s Schnabel speech
· CHF SNB’s Maechler speech
· NZD Business NZ PMI(Oct)
Today’s Highlights
· Breaking: UK Preliminary GDP misses estimates with 1.3% QoQ in Q3, GBP/USD unfazed
· Forex Today: Dollar capitalizes on hot inflation report, markets quiet down amid US holiday
· UK’s Sunak: There are challenges ahead of the economy
· AUD/USD tests key support around 0.7285 amid monetary policy divergence
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