• UK house prices continue to drop
• ECB Wunsch pushes case for 4% interest rates
• US and EU data in focus this week
Last week: Recap
The week finished with trading staying within the trading ranges of the week. Composite PMI data from the UK, EU, and the US all came in higher than expected indicating better than expected economic activity to kick Q2. We saw GBPUSD test both support and resistance levels as markets attempted to digest the good news on both sides of the pond. Data this morning from Rightmove showed that the rate of growth in house prices fell to the lowest since January 2020, highlighting the impact of higher interest rates on house affordability and demand for properties.
Quiet day to start the last week of April with most of the key data out later in the week. US GDP, core PCE, and employment cost index will be the main focal points for markets to decipher rate cuts by the Fed later in the year. And from Europe, GDP data for the EU area and Germany, as well as inflation figures from Germany, will be the highlight. Already this morning ECB member Pierre Wunsch was quoted in the FT suggesting that interest rates will continue to rise in Europe until wage growth slows, we could see peak rates at 4% – this is vs the markets pricing of 3.75%. Stronger GDP and CPI data from Europe and Germany will add to the argument that the ECB can continue to hike rates. UK data points are thin on the ground this week.
Equals Market Analysis– 24th April 2023
Today’s Market Rates
Today’s Interbank Rates at 08:57 am against GBP movement.
GBP>EUR – 1.1320
GBP>USD – 1.2434
EUR>USD – 1.0987
GBP>CAD – 1.6841
GBP>AUD – 1.8606
GBP>SEK – 12.8155
GBP>AED – 4.5666
GBP>HKD – 9.7610
GBP>ZAR – 22.623
GBP>CHF – 1.1076
· 09:00 EUR IFO – Business Climate(Apr)
· 09:00 EUR IFO – Current Assessment(Apr)
· 09:00 EUR IFO – Expectations(Apr)
· 13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Mar)
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