Main Headlines:
In the US, new coronavirus cases have fallen 21% in the last two weeks and some experts have suggested this could mark the start of a shifting course after nearly four months of ever-worsening case totals. This week, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which puts out a predictive model that is widely used for planning, released a projection saying new cases in the United States would decline steadily from now on. However, health officials are growing increasingly concerned that quickly circulating variants of the virus could cause new surges of cases faster than the country is managing to distribute Covid-19 vaccines.
British shoppers increased their spending in September at the slowest pace since January, when the country was stuck in a coronavirus lockdown, as they worried about a shortage of fuel, according to a survey published on Tuesday. The British Retail Consortium said retail spending lost more momentum last month, rising by just 0.6% compared with September 2020, much weaker than August’s 3.0% increase. Much of the country saw panic-buying of fuel last month as a shortage of tanker drivers led to disruption of supplies. The government has blamed this on problems facing the global economy as it reopens after lockdown, but critics say it also reflects Britain’s tougher post-Brexit immigration rules.
Markets
GBP
Sterling is higher than the dollar but lower than the euro in the early morning trade. British airline EasyJet said travel was back and it would fly to 70% of its pre-pandemic capacity in the Oct-Dec period, higher than it planned last month, after COVID-19 restrictions drove losses above 1 billion pound loss in 2021. Demand for holidays to winter sun destinations such as Egypt, Turkey and the Canary Islands showed customer appetite had returned, said easyJet, adding that business travellers were also booking flights. “We are encouraged to see positive booking momentum into full-year 2022 which has led us to increase our capacity plans,” easyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren. EasyJet also recently launched a surprise 1.2 billion pound rights issue and revealed it had rejected an “opportunistic” bid from a suitor, believed to be Wizz Air.
EUR
The euro is stronger than most majors this morning. Two dozen countries have joined a U.S.- and EU-led effort to slash methane emissions 30% by 2030, giving the emerging global partnership momentum ahead of its launch at the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow later this month. Nigeria, Japan and Pakistan are among the 24 new signatories to the Global Methane Pledge, which was first announced by the United States and EU in September with the aim of galvanizing rapid climate action before the start of the Scotland summit on Oct. 31. It could have a significant impact on the energy, agriculture and waste sectors responsible for the bulk of methane emissions. The US is due to release oil and gas methane regulations in the coming weeks, and the EU will unveil detailed methane legislation later this year.
USD
The dollar is lower than most majors overnight. Three US economists won the Nobel prize for economics for pioneering research that showed an increase in minimum wage does not lead to less hiring and immigrants do not lower pay for native-born workers, challenging commonly held ideas. The award was also won for creating a way to study these types of societal issues. Canadian-born David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, was awarded half of the prize for his research on how minimum wage, immigration and education affect the labor market. The other half was shared by Joshua Angrist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Dutch-born Guido Imbens from Stanford University for their framework for studying issues that can’t rely on traditional scientific methods. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said the three have “completely reshaped empirical work in the economic sciences.”
Ballinger & Co. Morning Report–12th October 2021
Today’s Rates
GBP>EUR – 1.1756
GBP>USD – 1.3593
EUR>USD – 1.1564
GBP>CAD – 1.6947
GBP>AUD – 1.8467
GBP>SEK – 11.898
GBP>AED – 4.9910
GBP>HKD – 10.575
GBP>ZAR – 20.415
GBP>CHF – 1.2610
Today’s Calendar
· EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Oct)
· EUR ZEW Survey – Current Situation(Oct)
· EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Oct)
· GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)(Sep)
· EUR ECB’s Lane speech
· EUR ECB’s Elderson speech
· USD Fed’s Clarida speech
· USD Fed’s Bostic speech
· NZD REINZ House Price Index (MoM)(Sep)
Today’s Highlights
· Forex Today: Dollar holds steady as market mood sours
· EUR/USD Forecast: Euro stays near 2021 lows as ECB doubles down on dovish outlook
· UK’s Barclay: There is recognition for NI protocol, but it is not working
· Bitcoin dominated crypto fund inflows as institutional investors turn bullish on BTC
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