Daily Market Update 12/10/2021

Main Headlines:

In the US, new coronavirus cases have fallen 21% in the last two weeks and some experts have suggested this could mark the start of a shifting course after nearly four months of ever-worsening case totals. This week, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which puts out a predictive model that is widely used for planning, released a projection saying new cases in the United States would decline steadily from now on. However, health officials are growing increasingly concerned that quickly circulating variants of the virus could cause new surges of cases faster than the country is managing to distribute Covid-19 vaccines.

British shoppers increased their spending in September at the slowest pace since January, when the country was stuck in a coronavirus lockdown, as they worried about a shortage of fuel, according to a survey published on Tuesday. The British Retail Consortium said retail spending lost more momentum last month, rising by just 0.6% compared with September 2020, much weaker than August’s 3.0% increase. Much of the country saw panic-buying of fuel last month as a shortage of tanker drivers led to disruption of supplies. The government has blamed this on problems facing the global economy as it reopens after lockdown, but critics say it also reflects Britain’s tougher post-Brexit immigration rules.

Markets

GBP

Sterling is higher than the dollar but lower than the euro in the early morning trade. British airline EasyJet said travel was back and it would fly to 70% of its pre-pandemic capacity in the Oct-Dec period, higher than it planned last month, after COVID-19 restrictions drove losses above 1 billion pound loss in 2021. Demand for holidays to winter sun destinations such as Egypt, Turkey and the Canary Islands showed customer appetite had returned, said easyJet, adding that business travellers were also booking flights. “We are encouraged to see positive booking momentum into full-year 2022 which has led us to increase our capacity plans,” easyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren. EasyJet also recently launched a surprise 1.2 billion pound rights issue and revealed it had rejected an “opportunistic” bid from a suitor, believed to be Wizz Air.

EUR

The euro is stronger than most majors this morning. Two dozen countries have joined a U.S.- and EU-led effort to slash methane emissions 30% by 2030, giving the emerging global partnership momentum ahead of its launch at the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow later this month. Nigeria, Japan and Pakistan are among the 24 new signatories to the Global Methane Pledge, which was first announced by the United States and EU in September with the aim of galvanizing rapid climate action before the start of the Scotland summit on Oct. 31. It could have a significant impact on the energy, agriculture and waste sectors responsible for the bulk of methane emissions. The US is due to release oil and gas methane regulations in the coming weeks, and the EU will unveil detailed methane legislation later this year.

USD

The dollar is lower than most majors overnight. Three US economists won the Nobel prize for economics for pioneering research that showed an increase in minimum wage does not lead to less hiring and immigrants do not lower pay for native-born workers, challenging commonly held ideas. The award was also won for creating a way to study these types of societal issues. Canadian-born David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, was awarded half of the prize for his research on how minimum wage, immigration and education affect the labor market. The other half was shared by Joshua Angrist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Dutch-born Guido Imbens from Stanford University for their framework for studying issues that can’t rely on traditional scientific methods. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said the three have “completely reshaped empirical work in the economic sciences.”

Ballinger & Co. Morning Report–12th October 2021

Today’s Rates

GBP>EUR – 1.1756

GBP>USD – 1.3593

EUR>USD – 1.1564

GBP>CAD – 1.6947

GBP>AUD – 1.8467

GBP>SEK – 11.898

GBP>AED – 4.9910

GBP>HKD – 10.575

GBP>ZAR – 20.415

GBP>CHF – 1.2610

  Today’s Calendar           

·       EUR      ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Oct)

·       EUR      ZEW Survey – Current Situation(Oct)

·       EUR      ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Oct)

·       GBP      NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)(Sep)

·       EUR      ECB’s Lane speech

·       EUR      ECB’s Elderson speech

·       USD      Fed’s Clarida speech

·       USD      Fed’s Bostic speech

·       NZD      REINZ House Price Index (MoM)(Sep)



 Today’s Highlights

·       Forex Today: Dollar holds steady as market mood sours

·       EUR/USD Forecast: Euro stays near 2021 lows as ECB doubles down on dovish outlook

·       UK’s Barclay: There is recognition for NI protocol, but it is not working

·       Bitcoin dominated crypto fund inflows as institutional investors turn bullish on BTC

  (https://frank-exchange.com/)

This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited/Manor House Foreign eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.

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